The Syrian War is Over, And Assad is The Victor!

Europeans, or at least a section of it, have realised that they have lost the war in Syria, and are hence looking forward to working with President Assad again, says Saurabh Kumar Shahi

European capitals this morning were still reeling from the revelation that Italy had been coordinating and cooperating with the Syrian Government even though there was a European Union sanction in place. The pinnacle of this coordination was a meeting that took place in early 2018 between Ali Mamlouk, the head of National Security Bureau of The Syrian Arab Republic and Marco Minniti, the former intelligence chief in Italy who was serving as Italy’s Home Minister at the time of the concerned meeting.
While this revelation has shocked several Eurocrats, this has not come as a surprise to those who have been following the event since the starting of foreign-backed and foreign-funded insurrection in the year 2011. The initial optimism that prevailed in the European capitals, which was based on the assumption that Syrian Government will collapse a la Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, slowly gave way to the realisation that Syrian Government enjoys the support of the majority of its population and that it is going to be very tough to dislodge Assad.
Then, somewhere around 2016, this correspondent through his sources in Syria started to get inputs on how some of the European countries had opened a direct line of communication with the Syrian Government behind EU’s back. This was the time when refugee crisis in Europe was at its peak and European intelligence agencies were jittery over the profile of refugees pouring in. Islamic State and other sundry terrorist groups, many of whom were directly and indirectly supported by the United States and EU, were using the refugee flow to embed their own sleeper cells to create mayhem in Europe. There were two intelligence agencies which could have supplied intelligence on them and those belonged to Turkey and Syria.
While Turkish intelligence agency, MiT, which initially facilitated all these terrorist groups in Syria, was in the best position to know about them, it was not playing ball because of the west-supported failed coup against the then Prime Minister Erdogan. This only left the Syrians to deal with. After initial deliberation, Italy, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia decided to play ball. The willing conduit was the Czech intelligence that never severed its relationship with Syrian intelligence at the first place, and had kept its embassy in Damascus open while all others withdrew.
Within months, intelligence started to flow. Both ways. Most of the countries collaborating with the Syrian intelligence were “Landing Countries” in that these were the nations where refugees from Syria and Iraq used to first enter while coming to Europe. They were thus the most exposed to any sleeper cells. This close coordination led to arrests of several terrorists and unearthing of many sleeper cells. Most of it didn’t make it to the news cycle as it would have blown the lid off the collaboration with the Syrian intelligence. However, now that the revelation about Italy has been made, there will be a slew of similar revelations in days and weeks to come. This will make it difficult for EU to punish Italy, as there will be several other countries in the same situation, and punishing them all would mean further destabilising the already destabilised European Union.
“Many of the countries in Eastern and Central Europe have realised that they have nothing to gain from supporting this war against Syria, and that the blowback would be severe. This includes those nations who are already resisting refugee quota. This is not to say that those in  Western and Southern Europe have any appetite left for supporting this war but they will take time to wind up while those who are already collaborating with Damascus have had the realisation several months ago if not years. They have understood that the war is lost and President Assad is here to stay. They naturally want to cut their losses,” says noted Syrian-American journalist and analystLiethAbouFdel.
So how will this thing pan out? All eyes are now set on the meeting that is going to take place between the United States and Russia in Moscow. President Trump is desperate for a withdrawal from Syria that the American deep state is not willing to commit to. Trump in all probability will push for it anyway. Once it is obvious that the US is willing to live with a Syria with Assad at its helm, the European appetite to sustain this war will dip overnight.
Therefore, in spite of all the bombastic comments coming from European capitals vis-à-vis life without Transatlanticism, the umbilical cord is still attached. If Washington is willing to live with Assad, Europe has no option but to bite the bullet. The war is over.