One of the negative manifestations of developments in Afghanistan is tied to the failed negotiation process between the US and Taliban on an official opening of a Taliban representative office in Qatar.
It seems strange that the office which was opened on June 18 did not last a month; its closure was linked to bureaucratic procedures. But the reality is that it was shut down due to disagreement on the name of the office and a flag above it.
The United States along with Qatar asked Taliban to remove these symbols because it was an embarrassment and would have meant acknowledgement of defeat and the recognition of Taliban, which has ties with terror networks as Al-Qaeda. It would have implied American acknowledgement of Talibs as official representatives of Afghanistan. Moreover, Washington’s request to remove Taliban symbols from the Doha office can be explained by the natural indignation of the acting government in Kabul. On the day of opening of the office, a special anti-Taliban operation in the Parwan province resulted in the killing of more than 50 insurgents.
Nevertheless, Taliban continues to survive with or without the Qatar office. In fact, it proceeds with its attacks in various parts of the country. The recent attack on the American consulate in Herat is a clear indication of their uncompromising behavior. Other than this, September witnessed an attack on the Iranian embassy and numerous attacks on check points and suicide bombings across Afghanistan.
Thus, the Qatar process, even with its temporary existence, did not affect the way Taliban behaves in Afghanistan. Taliban saw the Qatar project as an advantage to entrench itself into the legal framework and get a chance to speak on behalf of Afghanistan after 2014, but was not too disappointed when it failed to reach this objective.
The US-Qatar dialogue was one of the last chances to conclude the long-lasting Afghan war. This option was quite openly discussed in American political circles and was considered as a plan B. The breakdown of Plan B resulted in a leg up for the Taliban and annihilation of American military equipment by their soldiers themselves. According to some sources, this decision was made following the calculation of accountants who thought that it will be cheaper and safer to destroy them instead of taking them back home. The opening of a Qatar office also meant splitting the country. This was another plan of the US government that wanted to propose Talibs to take control over south Afghanistan and establish their own state for the sake of peaceful withdrawal of foreign troops and eschewing hostile acts against the US and its allies in the future. However, this proposal has created additional tension in the Afghan political classes. It resulted in increased activity of warlords across the country that once successfully controlled their zones of influence during the Taliban regime in the 1990s and were given high positions in the government with the arrival of the Karzai government.
Consequently, Mohammad Ismail Khan who once fought against Soviet troops has become an independent emir of the Herat province mostly populated by Shiite Hazaras. At a meeting, Ismail Khan proposed the creation of a new organization called ‘Union of Majaheds’ and arm its members if the situation so demanded.
A similar mood has been detected in General Abdul Rashid Dustum who launched an attack on the residence of Jowzhan governor Muhammad Alim Sahi while blocking army, police and security services in Sheberghan from interfering. This resulted in the runaway of Muhammad Alim to Kabul and Dustum’s takeover of the province populated mainly by Uzbeks. Another important figure in the north is Mohammad Atta Khan who has strong influence in the Panjsher valley populated by Tajiks.
It would be interesting to watch this growing trend of warlordism, especially after the American pullout in 2014. Even the Pushtuns are not immune to this trend despite the fact that the Taliban itself and the southern provinces are affiliated to ethnic Pushtuns. It includes Abdul Rasul Sayyaf who is blamed for the deaths of thousands of people. Recently, he has put forward his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections in the country. Although he has closely cooperated with Al Qaeda and other insurgent networks in the Philippines and Afghanistan, he does not like to be associated with Taliban.
It is hard to tell whether Afghanistan will change for the better and whether there is something positive one can expect from those who are going to play their role there after the withdrawal of foreign troops. What is understandable is that each important province within Afghanistan is going to protect its interest and sustain its power within its geographic sphere of influence.
