For reasons that are yet to be properly explained, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo and Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik decided to skip campaigning for the panchayat elections in the state in February except for a day’s token visit to his own constituency of Hinjli. True, the chief minister had undertaken a whirlwind tour of the state just before the elections were announced, launching or inaugurating a host of projects in almost all the 30 districts. Yet, his decision not to campaign certainly raised eyebrows – not the least because the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in a move rather unusual for a panchayat election, had lined up a host of central ministers, besides the chief ministers of the neighbouring states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand – Dr Raman Singh and Raghubar Das – to campaign in the state.
In the absence of an official explanation, observers and analysts had a field day speculating about the reason behind Naveen’s no-show. Some suggested he did not really need to campaign since he had already done the groundwork during his extensive tour of the state just before the polls. Others said his dodgy health condition – about which there has been a lot of speculation of late – did not allow him to undertake the rigours of electioneering in the hot February sun. Some were of the view that he was plain complacent while still others believed he had got an inkling that his party was not going to do very well and hence did not want to stake everything and then risk creating an impression that his magic was beginning to fade, something that could be disastrous for the party’s morale two years ahead of the next assembly elections.
No one knows for sure which of the reasons – or combination of reasons – persuaded the BJD boss to stay away from campaigning and leave it to others in the party. But the one thing that everyone is convinced about after the election results is this: after 17 years of unchallenged power, the BJD now has a real challenge on its hands in the unlikely shape of the BJP.
The party that had won an incredible 651 out of the 853 zilla parishad seats in 2012 – and had bragged about winning 700 this time – ended up with 473, still way ahead of the BJP that got 297 but 178 short of its tally in the last panchayat elections. More worryingly for the party, the BJP has taken an incredible jump from a mere 36 seats in 2012 to 297 this time, pushing the Congress to the margins with just 60. The vote shares of the three parties tell their own story. While the BJD lost over 3 per cent of its vote share compared to the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP gained a massive 15 per cent-plus to reach 33.03 per cent. Meanwhile, the Congress, which had got 25.6 per cent of the popular vote in 2014, nosedived to 18 per cent. The results confirmed something that had been apparent for some time now: the BJP has now well and truly replaced the Congress as the principal opposition party in the state.
The ruling party had clearly not bargained for this. Notwithstanding the bravado in public, there are unmistakable signs that the BJD has been rattled by the election results as is obvious in the vicious attacks launched by the party on BJP and its leaders after the panchayat polls. “BJP is clearly drawing up a strategy to win both the Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Odisha. Having realised this, BJD has been issuing angry statements and this proves the BJD’s weakness,” says BJD parliamentary party leader Bhartruhari Mahatab in a candid admission of the apprehensions that have crept into his party.
The supremo himself gave such a signal when he called for ‘introspection’ and asked partymen to ‘go back to people’ even while maintaining that the BJD still remained No. 1 party. He also promised a restructuring of the party organisation. In a first, he has started interacting with elected panchayat representatives in batches in an effort to understand what went wrong in the polls and decide on corrective measures needed to win back the unassailable position that the party has enjoyed for so long. He followed it up with a meeting with all party MPs – both from Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha – in the Parliament listening to their grievances and giving them some pep talk. The move, which again was unusual, followed speculation that some BJD MPs are ‘in touch’ with the BJP. Though such speculation was initially fuelled by the statements of BJP leaders, including Union tribal affairs minister Jual Oram, it soon became clear that it was not an empty boast when Tathagat Satpathy, the BJD MP from Dhenkanal, accused the BJP of trying to split his party and a fellow party MP of helping the saffron party in its designs. Kendrapara MP Baijayant ‘Jay’ Panda, The BJP MP that Satpathy hinted at without naming him in his tweets, responded with an article in a leading Odia daily all but accusing BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik of tolerating corruption and shielding criminal elements in the party.
More indication that Naveen has been forced out of his comfort zone came when he embarked on an image makeover exercise, clicking selfies with youngsters and being uncharacteristically friendly with the media – things that were unimaginable even weeks ago. The man who never bothered to visit the spot even after major incidents like the police firing on tribals in Kalinganagar killing 13 people in January 2006 or the communal conflagration in Kandhamal in August 2008, surprised many when he visited Bhadrak town after a communal flare-up post-Ram Navami, braving the hot April sun to talk to victims even though no one had died in the violence. Within hours of the Union government deciding to do away with red beacons atop the vehicles of VIPs on April 19, Naveen not only directed all his ministers and bureaucrats to remove their beacon lights, but had the one on his own official car removed even though the ban was to come into force only on May 1. Together, these moves are indicative of his sudden desire to live down as an aloof, haughty and hard-to-reach chief minister.
Already stung by the results of the panchayat polls, the BJD had more to worry about in its aftermath. First, it was the stupendous victory of the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh elections, which proved that three years after coming to power, the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, far from dipping, is actually on the ascendancy. Soon thereafter, the tremendous response that Modi got from the people during his two-day visit to Bhubaneswar to take part in the BJP national executive meeting on April 15 and 16 convinced the BJD that it could take the Modi phenomenon lightly at its own peril. While the BJD had successfully withstood the Modi wave in 2014, the panchayat poll results have proved that it would be a different ball game altogether in 2019. On its part, the BJP has made it clear that Odisha is one of the states where it believes it has a real chance of winning. In fact, the decision to hold the party’s national executive meeting in Bhubaneswar itself was a clear sign of the importance of the state in the BJP’s scheme of things.
Buoyed by the success of the national executive, BJP leaders and cadres in Odisha have already begun preparing in right earnest for the next assembly elections, which are still two years away. BJP leaders say an elaborate blueprint is being prepared to strengthen the party organisation in the state in time for the next election. To help in this exercise, BJP president will spend six days in the state in two phases in the next four months – from June 22 to 24 and then again from August 8-10 – meeting booth-level leaders and discussing strategy. Party leaders claim 20 lakh new members have been recruited in the last two years and boast about adding a similar number before the next polls.
As part of the strategy to chisel away at the BJD’s grassroots support, the BJP has gone to the people with some facts and figures about central grants and their underutilisation by the state government in a bid to disprove the BJD’s persistent rants against alleged central neglect. Besides, it has gone to great lengths to set the record straight about some of the welfare measures that have brought rich dividends for the BJD in the last two years. For example, it has driven home the point that the state government’s hugely popular Rs. 1 a kg rice scheme is primarily funded by the Centre, which contributes as much as Rs. 28 for every kg of subsidised rice given to the poor while the state government’s share is a mere Rs. 2. The party has also managed to dispel the public impression, created by the BJD through crafty management of public perception, that the 108 ambulance service, which has played a major role in delivery of healthcare services in the hinterland, is a state government scheme.
As the twitter war between BJD MPs Tathagat Satpathy and Baijayant Panda proved, an effort to wean away some prominent BJD leaders is also part of the BJP strategy to weaken the BJD and strengthen itself. At least two prominent BJP leaders – Union minister Jual Oram and party in-charge (pravari) for Odisha Arun Singh have claimed in the recent past that several BJD leaders, including MPs and MLAs, are ‘in touch’ with the BJP. But asked about such strategy, BJP state unit president Basanta Kumar Panda told The Sunday Indian: “The BJP has never believed in breaking anything; we believe in making. But if some people with impeccable character in other parties, including the BJD, want to come over, they are most welcome.” (See Interview).
There have been two major developments since the last elections in 2014 that have made a significant dent in Naveen’s hitherto unassailable position. First, the revelations about the complicity of his party leaders – and even his government – in facilitating the massive chit fund scam in the state that has come to the fore during the ongoing CBI inquiry has sullied his spotless Mr. Clean image that has won him election after election. Reports from the ground suggest that the chit fund scam has cost the BJD dear in the panchayat elections as the majority of the 10 lakh victims – and their families – voted against the ruling party. As if this was not bad enough, facts have emerged that clearly point at government complicity in the mega mining scam, worth at least Rs. 60,000 crore as per the Justice M B Shah commission of inquiry, and the land, housing and other scams running into thousands of crores.
Second, the emergence of Dharmendra Pradhan as the chief ministerial face of the BJP with the blessings of PM Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah has pitted Naveen, who enjoyed the benefits of the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor all these years, against a credible challenger.
But more than the upswing in the BJP’s fortunes, it is the decline of the Congress in the state that has hit the BJD real hard. For long the principal opposition party in the state, the Congress has been steadily going downhill over the last few years and reached the nadir in the panchayat elections, losing over 7 per cent of its votes compared to the 2014 assembly elections. What it has done is to turn a genuinely three-cornered contest, which benefited the BJD in the last two elections, into a straight fight between the BJD and the BJP.
It is, however, not as if all is lost for Naveen Patnaik. While it is true that his image has taken a beating since the last elections, he still remains popular, especially among the women. Man to man, he scores hands down over Dharmendra Pradhan. His party too remains the No. 1 party, way ahead of the BJP, notwithstanding the minor setback in the zilla parishad elections. If the BJP has two years to narrow down the gap, the BJD too has the same length of time to make amends to whatever has gone wrong.
It is clear that Naveen’s image alone would not be enough – as it was in the last two elections – for the BJD to win the next election. Having realised this, Naveen has embarked on an image makeover exercise. It is now up to the others in the party to do the same. But even that may not be enough. It would need a complete overhaul of the party organisation and launching of some new, innovative welfare schemes that catch the people’s imagination, like the Rs. 1 a kg rice scheme once did, to see the BJD through.
The outcome of the 2019 elections would thus depend on who plays its cards better – the BJD or the BJP – in the next two years.
‘THE BJP HAS NEVER BELIEVED IN BREAKING ANYTHING; WE BELIEVE IN MAKING’
Though your party did very well in the zilla parishad elections compared to its performance in 2012, it still ended up way below the ruling BJD. What is the basis of your claim that your party is all set to win the nextassembly elections?
The important thing is we are on the ascendancy while the BJD is on the downslide. Not only did we improve our tally by jumping from just 36 seats to 297, we have increased our vote share by a stunning 15 per cent compared to the 2014 assembly elections. The results have invigorated our party cadres, who have redoubled their efforts. They have fanned out to the grassroots to carry the message about the all-round failure of the Naveen Patnaik government and the benefits of the welfare measures launched by the Modi government at the Centre. There are still two years left for the next election and I have absolutely no doubt that we shall get a majority and form the government in 2019.
BJD MP Tathagat Satpathy has alleged that the BJP is trying to break the BJD. What do you have to say about the charge?
The BJP has never believed in breaking anything; we believe in making. The allegation of trying to break the BJD is completely false and baseless.
But senior leaders of your own party, including Jual Oram and Arun Singh, have themselves claimed that many BJD leaders are in touch with your party leaders, aren’t they?
If some people with impeccable character in other parties, including the BJD, want to come over, they are most welcome. But they must agree with our core ideology and belief.
Will the BJP go it alone in the next election or will you tie up with some smaller parties?
There is no problem tying up with some parties as long as there is ideological compatibility with them.
It looks like you are banking entirely on Narendra Modi to see you through the next election. But the Modi wave failed to work here last time, didn’t it?
The situation has undergone a sea change since then. Narendra Modi was a candidate for PM in 2014. Now, he has been PM for three years and the people of Odisha, like their counterparts in the rest of the country, have had a chance to see the good work his government has done. It was the Modi magic that brought a tremendous turnaround in our fortunes as you have seen in the panchayat elections. And I am confident the assembly elections would be no different.
Where does that leave state party leaders? Haven’t they been rendered redundant?
Not at all. He is the head of the family. Doesn’t a son work for his father? It’s the same in the BJP.
