As North Korean head Kim Jong Un and American President shook hands in Singapore, the internet almost collapsed. And justifiably so.
After several weeks of dithering, both leaders found the political will to carry on with the historic summit, which saw first-ever direct talks between the warring sides in over 70 years. It was not easy. John Bolton, the arch cheerleader of war, tried his best to derail the summit by mentioning the “Libya Model” where one side gives it all while the other side kills the head of the state. What Bolton and his ilk forgot to consider was that unlike Libya, North Korea did not merely have a few centrifuges spinning. It is a full-fledged nuclear state with delivery capabilities. It also didn’t go down well with the North Korean leader that the US announced another military exercise with South Korea, this time involving strategic bombers. Kim Jong Un reacted predictably and asked the interlocutor to pack the bag.
The US reacted immediately by first cancelling the exercise with South Korea, and then cutting John Bolton off the summit altogether. It worked wonders.
Sources say that the meeting happened in a very cordial manner and both sides believe that they have something to take away from this summit. However, this is merely a start. If the US believes that North Korea will give up its nukes just like that, it is living in fool’s paradise. US’ withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal, Paris Climate Deal and NAFTA means that its international reputation is in tatters. It is no more seen as a nation that can keep its word, and this makes any future deal extremely thorny.
However, Kim Jong Un is no push-over and realises that he can play with Trump for long. Trump, on the other hand, is focused on 2022 elections and ant something to show to its domestic audience. Kim Jong Un has already thrown a piece of bread in the form of returning the remains of those Americans who died during the Korean War. Trump understands the importance of this offer and is exhilarated.
“Kim senses, on his part, that he must concede on issues that matter to Trump politically – the issue of the “remains” of Americans who lost their lives in the Korean War, which is a hugely emotive issue in the US and is assured of resonance during a no-holds-barred election campaign that looms ahead in America. Trump had a pleasant surprise when Kim agreed on the spot – just like that,” said noted foreign policy analyst and ex-Diplomat, M Bhadrakumar.
But what is here for Kim? Well, a lot. Trump has stressed that denuclearisation and security guarantee would eventually lead to stopping of a joint exercise with South Korea, and maybe, a possible withdrawal from the peninsula too. However, it is important to understand that denuclearisation does not mean that North Korea will give up its nuclear arsenal. Such expectations are dangerous. Kim knows that a North Korea without nuclear weapons will be like Iraq under Saddam and Libya under Gaddafi. On its part, North Korea will start dismantling test sites and other infrastructures, something that can take years.
“Trump has offered a deal that Kim cannot afford to reject. The ending of US-ROK military exercises forthwith; Trump’s agenda of eventual withdrawal of troops from ROK; the lure of withdrawal of sanctions once 20% of the de-nuclearisation process gets underwayonce the process becomes irreversible; Trump’s hint that he has sought assurances from Japan and ROK that they will be ‘generous’ in offering economic assistance to NK; China’s involvement in the crucial process – these are tangibles,” adds Bhadrakumar.
However, not everyone is equally optimistic. Trump has received brickbats from usual quarters, including liberal media. Ironically, it appears that all those who were against the Iranian Nuclear Deal are rooting for the North Korean Deal, while those who were rooting for the Iranian Deal are furious over Singapore summit. Also, frankly, no one trusts either Trump or his administration. It is also interesting to see how American Congress reacts to this development. Congress and Trump don’t see eye to eye on most of the issues, and Congress will not let go of a chance to drag Trump back.
“I am, I must admit, finally convinced Trump is indeed a great salesman and a first-rate showman on top of it —no one and I mean no one could ever sell so much bullshit as a ‘historic event’ — and everyone with very few exceptions are drinking the Kool-Aid. Read the document they have signed forward and backward— there is nothing there — NK has committed to nothing — it’s just a gimmick— a sideshow, a diversionary tactic, first and foremost to make Obama look weak and wimpy and second prepare the groundwork for war with Iran— and above all make Trump look grandiose and a man of historical significance,” says noted academician and analyst Professor Hamid Dabashi.
Dabashi’s pessimism is shared by many inside and outside of the United States. It will take several months, if not years, to realise whether the entire thing was worth it. Till then, Trump might or might not remain in the White House.
