It is just over a month to the general elections in Pakistan and things have started to heat up. It is an important milestone in the Pakistani democracy as this will only be the second elected government to complete its term. However, the future remains wide open.
While ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter are barred from ever running for office again, this has not dampened the morale of Pakistan Muslim League (N). The Party has performed reasonably well while in power and is confident that people will repose their faith in the Party again and will give it the requisite mandate.
On the other hand, Imran Khan and his PTI are justifiably buoyant at the prospect of winning this election. The Establishment in Pakistan appears to have a soft corner for PTI and Imran and has at times used its overarching influence to help them out in ways more than one. However, if the polls are reasonably fair, like it was the last time, it will not be a cakewalk for Imran.
In many ways, general elections in Pakistan are more cumulative of several provincial elections than a national mandate. For years, only PML (N) could claim to be a national party in Pakistan in that it was a major party in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)while having a limited presence in Baluchistan and Sindh. PTI now can claim to be a national party because of its government in KP, influence in Punjab and limited influence in Sindh, primarily Karachi. Asif Ali Zardari’s PPP is limited to Sindh and southern Punjab. All others are regional players. Therefore these elections too will be basically cumulative of how each party performs in its own bastions. And this is where PTI will find the going gettough.
All indications suggest that PTI will likely retain KP and win most of the National Assembly seats from the state as well. Only recently, seven Agencies from FATA were merged with the province, and this will give Party some boost. The Party here is in alliance with religious parties, and they act as a force multiplier. However, PML (N) will also get some seats here considering a substantial part of the population in FATA considers the Agencies’ merging with KP as a gift from PML (N) and not PTI. PTI’s performance in the field of providing universal health care and in trying to reverse the deforestation has won plaudits. Its performance in other areas is average. Also, it is quite telling that PTI, rather than showcasing its achievements, is banking on bigotry, which is amply provided by its partners.
Baluchistan will once again see local tribal-lords winning a majority of the seats with PML (N) coming a close second or even peeping them to the top. Many in Baluchistan see China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a PML (N) project and it is only natural that it will get benefits from the voters. PTI has limited to no influence here and might go for an alliance with a tribal leader who is palatable to Imran Khan’s taste.
Sindh, like in the past, will once again go with PPP as neither PTI nor PML (N) has managed to dent the emotional quotient of the Bhuttos here. However, PPP will likely not see any resurgence in southern Punjab. The Party lost the vast majority of seats in the region in the last elections and has not done anything concrete to regain them. Also, it will be interesting to see what happens in Karachi and Hyderabad. Once a bastion of MuttahidaQaumi Movement of Urdu speakers, these cities send a substantial number of representatives to both Provincial and National Assembly. However, after the security operations and the implosion of MQM, PTI believes that the city will fall into its lap like a ripe fruit. But it is easier said than done. Sources say that both the factions of MQM believe that they will have to join hands in order to survive, and it is possible that only days before the poll, both the factions will join hands to thwart PTI’s plans. If the factions join hand, it will be like the MQM of the past with no hangover of Altaf Hussain. In that case, it will be a wipeout for PTI.
This only leaves Punjab. There is no doubt that Imran Khan is on an upswing here in the urban areas. However, he still lacks the critical mass. Outside of the cities, his Party remains a non-entity. To overcome this, he engineered a defection in the Punjab units of PML (N) and PPP and brought in “Electables” especially from south Punjab. “Electables” in Pakistani political parlance are those candidates who are powerful politically and otherwise in their areas and tend to win their seats irrespective of which party they represent. Imran Khan had learnt his lesson in the last polls and thus went for this political skulduggery by first engineering the defection and then aligning with them. However, this would not be enough to sail him through. It is important to remember here that Punjabi voters consider the treatment meted to Sharif and his family as a personal affront and will likely react to it. Also, Punjab has benefitted a lot from all the early harvest projects of CPEC. This will help PML (N) massively. While the growing numbers of young voters tend to tilt towards PTI, PML (N) holds its own among the grown-ups. Had Nawaz Sharif been fighting this election, it would have been a cakewalk in Punjab. His absence will likely hurt the Party. It will depend upon whether voters still identify with the Party with Sharifs even if there are no Sharifs—with the exception of Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif—to represent it.
“The PML-N has been in attack mode ever since former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification by the Supreme Court, and many observers believe he may have damaged his party’s prospects by scaring away the seasonal ‘Electables’ who switch sides each time the windsock changes direction. Some of these electables have rushed into the waiting arms of the PTI, particularly in southern Punjab. Even elsewhere there has been movement, as candidates wary of Nawaz Sharif’s continued targeting of the establishment have left him, including one of his key lieutenants of more than 30 years, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan.The flip side, of course, is that reporters and analysts, who have travelled across Punjab for one, suggest that the Sharif narrative is gaining momentum and may deliver the former prime minister’s party a healthy electoral dividend,” says noted political analyst from Karachi, Abbas Nasir.
There is still a month to the polls. A lot of political realignment might happen in the meanwhile. But unless some tectonic shifts happen, it looks like ahung house in Pakistan this time.
