‘‘Mulayam Singh Yadav is dreaming of becoming prime minister but first he should try for a sweeper’s job there. Samajwadi Party is built on lies and the Congress will finish it’’, July 3, 2013
‘‘I was angry with Mulayam but these days we exchange greetings. We have been old associates but his policies lead to us parting ways’’, August 17, 2013
These are two contradictory statements issued by Union steel minister Beni Prasad Verma against Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Until recently, Verma was using the choicest expletives against his one-time friend. Now, it would appear that the two hearts are growing fonder. Do the two announcements suggest that former Socialist colleagues, one time comrades but now bitter rivals, are in the process of making up? Not by a long shot. Political expediency is the order of the day.
Beni babu is not alone in this steadily growing list of new-found admirers of the SP strongman. A clutch of Congress heavyweights, ranging from national president Sonia Gandhi and heir apparent Rahul Gandhi along with UPA cabinet colleagues Salman Khurshid, Jitin Prasad, Sriprakash Jaiswal, Sanjay Singh, PL Punia, Jagdambika Pal and RPN Singh right down to state president Nirmal Khatri, owe their political livelihood, so to speak, to Mulayam.
Reason? If victories in the 2012 assembly elections segments are any yardstick, then most of these Congress leaders have all but already lost their elections next year! Which is why Khatri’s recent statement that the party will field candidates from Mainpuri and Kannauj, made the Congress rather than SP, jittery. Mulayam represents Mainpuri and daughter-in-law Dimple is the Kannauj MP.
Sample some of the Congress handicaps. In Sonia’s Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituency, four out of five assembly segments are held by the SP while in neighbouring Amethi which is represented by Rahul, three out of five assembly segments were bagged by SP in the 2012 polls. The two won by Congress were claimed by small margins. In Beni Verma’s constituency Gonda, all five assembly seats were won by SP. Likewise in adjacent constituencies, Sultanpur, Unnao and Barabanki, represented by Sanjay Singh, Anu Tandon and PL Punia respectively, all assembly seats were captured by the SP. Of the five assembly seats in Faizabad, represented by Nirmal Khatri, four are with the SP and one with the BJP.
In Farrukhabad, foreign minister Salman Khurshid’s constituency, four out of five assembly seats are with the SP; the lone independent MLA who had won the constituency had defeated his wife Louis Khurshid. Minister of state for rural development Pradip Jain, MP from Jhansi, is up against a similar predicament: of the six assembly seats, three are with the BSP, two with SP and one with the BJP. Another minister of state RPN Singh from Kushinagar has three out of five assembly seats with SP while senior Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has three SP MLAs from his Domariaganj Lok Sabha seat. Voluble central minister Sriprakash Jaiswal managed to get one Congress member elected to the assembly from his Kanpur Lok Sabha seat in 2012; of the four others, two belong to the SP and two to the BJP.
There is little doubt that the Congress and SP have had an informal electoral understanding. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Mulayam had not put up candidates against Sonia and Rahul. In 2004, the SP had deliberately put up weak candidates against the mother-son duo; in return the Congress too has taken it easy on Mulayam by not fielding candidates from his constituency. By such reciprocity, the SP leader has been able to ‘manage’ the disproportionate assets case lodged against him by the CBI. In 2012, the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat was won unopposed by Dimple Yadav, wife of UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, as no other party decided to enter the fray. In the process, she became the second Uttar Pradesh MP to be elected unopposed since Purushottam Das Tandon took the Allahabad Lok Sabha seat in 1952.
Under the circumstances, the tables have turned a bit. While earlier, it was Mulayam Singh who needed the support of the Congress, this time it could be the other way round.
With the advent of Narendra Modi on the national scene, an important section of Muslims in UP were inclined to back the Congress as Sonia Gandhi looked the one best positioned to take on the BJP strongman. But relief for Mulayam has come in the form of the suspension of IAS officer Durga Sakthi Nagpal, who is now being portrayed by the SP as being responsible for the demolition of a mosque in Gautam Buddha Nagar. The move may have sparked media outrage, but for the SP leader it is a sign that the Muslim vote is consolidating in his favour, particularly after Congress president Sonia Gandhi took up cudgels on behalf of the IAS officer against the state government, only to not press the point too much.
Muslims, who constitute roughly 20 percent of the state’s population, are in a position to influence the outcome in about 25 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP. Says a Congress leader: ‘‘Muslims will vote for whoever can defeat the BJP. With the emergence of Modi, the upper caste voters have shifted in BJP’s favour leaving the Muslims no option but to go with Mulayam Singh Yadav again. But there is an alternative view. According to analyst Subrokamal Dutta, ‘‘while a section of Muslims may be upset with the Congress, Sonia’s moves on the IAS officer has got the Congress substantial upper caste votes in both urban and urban pockets in the state.’’
Political observers believe that the quid pro quo between SP and the Congress does not come without strings. Mulayam is hopeful that in the eventuality of a Third Front dispensation coming to power, the Congress would return the favour by backing him with outside or even inside support. He has so far not fielded candidates against Sonia and Rahul for 2014 while ineffectual SP members have been pitted against the other Congress stalwarts, all in the hope that its support will be vital in the formation of the next government. By changing three candidates against Beni Prasad Verma, it is the SP leader’s way of demonstrating that he could put up heavyweights against the other Congress leaders if the relationship between the two parties ceases to be sweet.
To put Beni Verma in his place, the SP first fielded Kirtivardan, son of state agriculture minister Anand Singh. Soon the party changed its mind and decided to field Rahul Shukla in Brahman-dominated Gonda. With Beni Prasad and his loose tongue coming in the way, Mulayam Singh will now pit Rahul’s mother and important Brahman leader Nandita Shukla, a third time MLA, against the Congress Kurmi leader.
The line up against the other Congress stalwarts too is complete. Sachin Yadav, son of minister for homeguards Narendra Singh Yadav, will contest against Salman Khurshid, Sriprakash Jaiswal has stand up comedian Raju Shrivastava as his rival, RPN Singh will fight Nathni Kushwaha, Punia has Ram Magan Yadav to contend with, Nirmal Khatri will fight veteran Mitrasen Yadav while Shakil Ahmed will counter the prince of Amethi Sanjay Singh. The deadlock is well and truly complete, now only the die needs to be cast.
