With national political parties finding themselves out on a limb in Karnataka, it’s the caste-based regional outfits that are calling the shots. Will the political cookie in this southern state crumble the way of Uttar Pradesh?
Karnataka is gearing up for Assembly elections in April. With the fortunes of the ruling BJP and the Congress hitting the skids in the state, caste-based regional formations are likely to gain in the post-poll scenario.
Karnataka is set to go the Uttar Pradesh way. UP is India’s largest state and is accustomed to electoral fragmentation on caste and community lines. Karnataka, only one third the size of UP, is not. So, if a hung Assembly is what the April elections yield, the development would mark a paradigm shift in Karnataka politics. Congress, BJP and Janata Dal are the three parties that have traditionally jostled for seats in the Vidhana Soudha. Two new forces have lately jumped into the fray. Former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) and Badava Shramika Raitha Congress (BSR Congress), led by B Shriramulu, the right hand man of jailed mining baron Gali Janardhana Reddy, are likely to queer the pitch for the national parties by taking away a chunk of their votes.
While none of the five contenders are in a position to sweep the polls, KJP and BSR Congress could both wrest enough seats to give the principal parties a run for their money. But in the run-up to the elections, none of the political formations is keen to get into any alliances, preferring to wait and watch the for eventual outcome. For Congress and Janata Dal (Secular), the April polls could be just another electoral battle. But for BJP and KJP, it would be an acid test. The BJP would be out to demonstrate that it has the strength to live down Yeddyurappa’s exit. For the party leaders who have been instrumental in pushing Yeddy out of the BJP, the likes of KS Eeshwarappa, Ananth Kumar, Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar, the upcoming election would be an opportunity to prove a point.
Yeddy too, would be determined to make the BJP, a party he served for four decades, pay for the folly of neglecting a regional mass leader with the backing of the dominant Lingayat community.
The BJP will also have to contend with the BSR Congress. Yeddy’s mass support and the Reddy’s money power had catapulted BJP to power in Karnataka in 2008. With both now gone, it would be an uphill task for the party to retain power. BJP is unlikely to win more than 50 to 60 seats. In that eventuality, it would be back on the Opposition benches.
In the past, the Congress has had to suffer the consequences of sidelining Veerendra Patil, who was not only a mass leader but also had control over the party’s rank and file. This was something that Yeddy lost no opportunity to remind the BJP’s central leadership of.
When Indira Congress sacked Chief Minister Veerendra Patil, leader of the politically powerful Lingayat community (to which Yeddy himself belongs), and installed S Bangarappa in his place, the party lost the next election and HD Deve Gowda of Janata Dal became the chief minister.
In 1994, history repeated itself. Congress sacked Bangarappa and named Veerappa Moily chief minister. Bangarappa quit Congress and launched his own party, Karnataka Congress Party. His outfit won only ten seats but managed to ensure a Congress defeat in 30 constituencies. Janata Dal stormed to power in the bargain.
That is exactly what Yeddy aspires to achieve. He is aware that KJP will not win a landslide. All he wants to do is play a key role in ensuring that BJP bites the dust in Karnataka in 2013. The KJP could win 30 to 40 seats while significantly eating into the BJP vote share in at least 25 other constituencies.
For BSR Congress too, the 2013 election will be of great significance. Its outcome will determine the future of the Reddy camp. Janardhana Reddy is behind bars on charges of being the kingpin of the Karnataka mining scam and the CBI is tightening the screws on him. His days in jail are unlikely to end anytime soon. Therefore, the more seats BSR Congress wins, the better would be the chances of his coming out of prison. However, outside of Bellary, the party has no base. So its tally of seats will barely get into double figures.
Given the political uncertainty reigning in Karnataka, Congress should have been on a strong wicket. But since it does not have a charismatic leader with the rank and file behind him, it is looking down the barrel.
Congress is a divided lot in Karnataka and the return of the former external affairs minister SM Krishna to state politics has only made matters worse. The party has too many leaders and each one of them fancies his own chance of being CM if the party does manage to win.
Dr Parameshwar, Siddaramaiah, DK Shivakumar, Shamanur Shivashankarappa, and now SM Krishna, are all pitted against each other. Krishna’s return has led to an intensification of infighting in the state unit of the party.
Krishna’s absence from the recent ‘chintan shivir’ in Jaipur has raised eyebrows in Bangalore. It is being speculated that Krishna stayed away from the Jaipur meet to register his protest at not being clearly nominated to lead the party in the next Assembly polls.
It would surprise no political observer if Congress’ performance in the election is worse than what it was in 2008. In the last Assembly elections in Karnataka, the Congress polled 34.59% votes and secured 80 seats.
The real gainer will be JD(S), led by HD Kumaraswamy and his father HD Deve Gowda. In fact, this party has no leadership tussle. No dissidence is allowed in JD(S) and anybody who raises a voice against the dictatorial ways of the father and son duo is promptly shown the door. So leadership is a settled issue in JD(S), something that neither the Congress nor the BJP can claim in Karnataka.
Being a party of the second most dominant community, the Vakkaligas, JD(S) is deeply rooted in the community belt in south Karnataka. It could double its current number of Assembly seats – 27 – in the next House.
The caste-based political formations are gaining strength. While the KJP is deepening its roots in the state’s powerful and dominant community, the JDS is doing the same with the state’s second most powerful community, the Vakkaligas.
The possibility of these regional and caste-based outfits crushing the BJP and Congress and making them insignificant in the state’s politics cannot be ruled out. That would be a replication of the UP situation where the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have pushed the Congress and the BJP into secondary positions. Congress leader VS Ugrappa doesn’t agree. He says: “Caste, money and muscle power are dominating the political arena. There is lack of statesmanship in many political parties. In Karnataka, people have suffered coalition politics and the BJP rule. So, they appear to be determined to support Congress this time. If the party capitalises on the growing support, it will definitely come to power.” Wishful thinking? Without an iota of doubt. kumar.buradikatti@planmanmedia.com
