Notwithstanding the Narendra Modi sparkle, Gujarat is not India. If conventional wisdom is anything to go by, coalition politics is here to stay. It then follows that any government that now comes to power in New Delhi will need to have the unstinting support of its regional allies to be able to reach the magic 272 figure mark in the Lok Sabha. The question therefore is this: will the NDA get its act together under Modi?
His elevation was welcomed within minutes when Akali Dal, the BJP’s principle ally amongst all its former and current NDA partners, said it was a smart move. ‘‘It paves the way for the ouster of corrupt Congress governments at the centre and the state,’’ Punjab’s deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal told reporters in Chandigarh.
AIADMK’s Jayalalitha – otherwise a difficult ally to deal with as Vajpayee realized – and Modi have long supported each other and in the eventuality of BJP getting its numbers will most certainly find herself in the saffron camp leaving arch rival K Karunanidhi to sup with the UPA.
Shiv Sena, the other NDA ally still within the coalition, has welcomed Modi’s appointment, their ideological proximity to the saffronites well known. Late Shiv Sena boss Balasaheb Thackeray was an ardent supporter of the BJP despite differences with its state unit and there is little to believe that anything would change – apart from the posturing.
But the real rub lies with allies like the JD (U), a successful link in the NDA chain which has managed to keep Congress and Laloo at bay in Bihar. Now with changed equations, things could be different.
Immediately after Advani’s resignation, JD (U) convenor Sharad Yadav told TSI: ‘‘Atal and Advani had built up the NDA, now with Advani gone, we have to rethink.’’
While Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had earlier upped the ante saying he could not think of going with Modi at the helm, now is his real test. Will he stay on in the NDA? Chances look slim. Some JD (U) leaders privately say that the Modi decision is an internal affair of the BJP; he has not become the poll in charge of the NDA, only the BJP.
With the NDA in shambles at the moment, there is sudden activity in non-BJP, non-Congress camps. Odisha Chief Minister Navin Patnaik – usually reticent in such matters – went on record to say that the Gujarat chief minister presented no credible option for India’s problems. ‘‘Much of the development in Gujarat is hyped up. That state has always been prosperous,’’ he told reporters.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee too has given a clarion call for a Third Front to get its act together with the mess that prevails in India’s two major political parties.
There is little doubt that Modi will have to take his allies along – even for a master tactician like Vajpayee, it was a tough task that required herculean skill, stamina and perseverance to be able to prevail. India’s vast and varied diversity ensures that.
