When minister of state for food processing Charan Das Mahant recently said he would be willing to sweep the party office in Chhattisgarh if instructed by Congress supremo Sonia Gandhi, he was repeating what another Congressman Zail Singh said three decades ago about then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi when nominated President of India during her tenure.
Times may have changed but the message then – as now – remains the same; Madam is supreme.
For all of the Rahul vs Modi hype that promises to overtake everything else in the run up to the 2014 poll campaign, it could well in the end turn out to be a Sonia vs Modi offensive that could determine the outcome of the elections.
In real terms, there remains no one in the Congress who is better equipped to take on the likes of Narendra Modi than Sonia Gandhi. While Modi- vs Rahul is a good talking point, anyone inside the Congress will tell you that the Amethi MP is a relative greenhorn in politics – pretty much the reluctant politician – when confronted with the Gujarat Chief Minister’s trained oratory: right voice modulations, basic research, fierce attacks on main rival Congress, the use of local metaphors to make a point and cutting, acidic humour – in other words a consummate actor campaigner.
In such a scenario, Sonia remains the Congress’s best bet and party leaders readily acknowledge it. ‘‘You cannot help it. When other Congress leaders address rallies, the attendance is not too good. But when it comes to Sonia Gandhi, sure, she is the biggest crowd puller we have. The masses are fascinated by her,’’ says former Union minister and Congress veteran K Natwar Singh.
Insiders in the party say that for 2014 – notwithstanding Rahul’s anointment as head of the Congresspoll campaign committee – Sonia Gandhi is going to be the main campaigner against Modi and the BJP. Her understanding of issues is grounded in the political realities of the day, she has the ability to raise the political pitch in her own way – no less than what the BJP can – and the party’s all India cadre ensures that her footprints will continue to remain the largest of any political leader on the horizon.
This is why Sonia – like in 2004 and 2009 – is likely to play the key role behind the scenes once the polls are over and a government has to be put in place. According to the party’s own estimate and internal surveys, if their pro-poor sops like cash for transfer scheme work, then India is looking at a third term for the UPA; if it doesn’t, there is still no alliance that can form a government unless it has Congress support, even from the outside. Of course, if the Modi-led NDA is going to sweep the polls – as some pollsters and sections of the media seem to suggest, then all equations will turn on their head.
There have been various interpretations offered to what Union minister Jairam Ramesh recently said about the Gujarat chief minister; among other things, Ramesh tacitly acknowledged that Modi posed a threat to the Congress. The sense of what he said may have different but the Congress, sensing the pitfalls of engaging in such a public debate, was quick to scotch any speculation. ‘‘Modi could be a challenge for the BJP and NDA but for the Congress. We do not consider him a challenge. It is the considered view of the Congress party,’’ spokesman Shakeel Ahmed told reporters at his briefing.
Look at it any way, the Congress is bound to emerge as one of the two largest parties’ post-2014, and Sonia will have a key role to play. Her experiment of heading the party while a nominee becomes prime minister and head of government, is considered unique in any democracy. There are good chances that such an arrangement could be repeated in 2014 if Rahul continues with his disinterest in all things political.
Writes pro-BJP journalist Sandhya Jain: ‘‘One impact of the Gujarat Chief Minister’s elevation as the BJP’s election campaign committee chief will be the quiet retreat of the Amethi MP (Rahul Gandhi) as his main challenger; the Congress president will be forced to lead the electoral battle in 2014 and search for a new surrogate-PM, should the party be in a position to head a new coalition government.’’
Some realization of it has already crept in. Congress thinking heads believe that the Rahul vs Modi model may not be appropriate for 2014, particularly when the Gujarat strongman is expected to launch an aggressive campaign many months before the actual elections. ‘‘Sonia Gandhi is our leader and president of the Congress party. She will continue to be president. We are going to fight the 2014 elections under the leadership of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi,’’ Congress spokesman Rahid Alvi asserted, as if to set at rest any doubts about her primary role in the Lok Sabha election campaign.
Insiders say Sonia has already pushed the button; in her scheme of things, the best chance for the Congress to reenergize itself against corruption scandals and rampaging inflation is to clamp down on any party dissidence. Rahul Gandhi in his most recent interactions with state units like Delhi has warned of serious action should any party member be found sabotaging its prospects. That is the signal going out to the party rank and file, which may be divided vertically and horizontally, but for whom Sonia’s name is like a glue which sticks and sticks well.
Fresh evidence of that has come in the recent reshuffle within the party and the government. Ajay Maken and CP Joshi, two relatively low-profile ministers, have been brought into the party after somewhat dramatic resignations from the government in an effort to beef up the party organization. Joshi from Rajasthan and Maken from Delhi, are expected to play crucial roles when their states go for assembly elections later this year.
Two other appointments, former Sonia aide Ambika Soni and veteran Gujarat Congressman Madhusudan Mistry, have raised eyebrows. Soni, known for her proximity to Sonia is back with the Congress president, a position she held earlier and Mistry, with no experience of UP, has been sent by the high command there to keep an eye on the Modi-Amit Shah duo who are expected to up the ante in the state. The appointment of Mistry to UP is evidence of the seriousness with which Congress is taking Modi. Already there are reports that the BJP’s star campaigner is contemplating a seat from the state.
Congress insiders say the party is girdling its loins for the tough battle ahead. The core of the party’s think tank – Jairam Ramesh, AK Anthony, Ahmed Patel, Digvijay Singh and others – the election committee handpicked by Rahul with the blessings his mother is strategizing and planning on a daily basis.
Between Rahul’s Tughlaq Road residence and 10 Janpath, it is a daily exchange of ideas and hectic political activity. Not surprisingly, old Gandhi faithful Vincent George is in, his experience in these matters considered invaluable. For those apprehensive of a Modi onslaught, no worry, the Congress president is burning the midnight oil.
