Suddenly after the Uttar Pradesh elections, the mood in the Congress party looks to be one of despair, despondency, hopelessness and a feeling that the party is standing on no man’s land with nowhere to go and no light at the end of the tunnel.
Part of the problem has to do with the calculated decision of Sonia Gandhi to seek retirement and fade into the sunset leaving son and heir apparent Rahul Gandhi holding the command of the party in his hands.
That, say partymen, is the major problem confronting the Congress with Rahul looking more and more unfit to lead the party at a stage where its fortunes are dwindling in numerous state assemblies, its vote bank is shrinking, and its leader is unable to take on the might and momentum of Narendra Modi and his brand of politics which seeks to combine the slogans of development with that of Hindutva.
Rahul Gandhi has been in mainstream politics since 2004, when he first contested and won the Lok Sabha elections. He came in with hope and expectation that he could lead the Congress on the same lines as his forefathers and other stalwarts had led the party. But over the years when the myth of Rahul turned into a reality, Congressmen gradually became unsure of how long and how far he could take them along.
The bomb of expectation appears to have exploded in the recent UP assembly elections when the Congress came back home with just 7 seats in its kitty in a House of 403. It became clear that the Congress leadership did nothing to build the party in Uttar Pradesh where a hollow structure stands and merely paratrooping and holding press conferences and rallies is not going to put that right.
Going against the popular wisdom in the party which said that the Congress should align with the BSP and Mayawati, Rahul decided to go with the Samajwadi Party. Part of the reason was his dislike of Mayawati and her brand of politics, part was the influence of Prashant Kishore who egged on for a tieup with Akhilesh Yadav and part was the influence of Rahul’s team of advisors like K Raju and Mohan Gopal, all Dalits who did not want a tie-up with a Dalit party as it would corrode their own standing and influence.
Much of Rahul’s team consists of nonpolitical men and women who are sons and daughters of big leaders. The team that will fight Modi in 2019 is arguably one which looks weak on paper and practice. They are Depender Hooda, Gaurav Gogoi, Sanjay Jha, Priyanka Chaturvedi, Randeep Surjewala, and Sushmita Dev and then there are others like Harish Chaudhary, Manik Tagore and C P Joshi against whom there are large-scale corruption charges but Rahul continues to back them.
There are no strategists and back-room boys and girls who can map out the road ahead. For that he has zeroed in on the likes of Prashant Kishore who after messing up UP, has now been put in charge of Gujarat, where the Congress needs to beat Modi but because of lack of a viable face and an uncertain leadership, it looks highly unlikely that the Congress can raise the deflated morale of its soldiers and ask them to jump into the battlefield with a winning agenda.
Since the days of Sonia Gandhi, debates and discussions have been minimised with no forum for leaders and workers to voice their views frankly
Since the days of Sonia Gandhi, debates and discussions have been minimised with no available forum for leaders and workers to voice their views clearly and honestly. General secretaries of the AICC are hand in glove with chief ministers of the states they are in charge of, so various other factions in the party do not get a chance to have their views conveyed. A classic example is Mukul Wasnik who was in charge of Rajasthan for 9 years and still continues in the AICC as a general secretary after the party got just 21 seats in Rajasthan and was badly trounced.
Mohan Prakash is another example of a general secretary who has failed to perform in states under his charge but Rahul has continued to keep him going. The examples are many and the solutions few and far between with no responsibility and no accountability, leaving party leaders with the impression that they can do anything and there would be a comeback.
The fact that after coming down to 44 seats in 2014 from 206 in 2009, both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi chose to turn a blind eye to the results and no changes were made to put the party apparatus on notice. As a senior leader put it, “Winning and losing is part of politics, but what is worrying is the approach of Rahul Gandhi which spells bad news for the Congress even in the years ahead.” His contempt for senior leaders, his lack of articulation, poor communication skills, disconnect with the people, arrogance within the party, obstinacy in imagining he knows everything and unwillingness to learn have led to a situation where many of those who have met and interacted with him say they see no point in meeting him again.
With Narendra Modi focusing on weaning away the core support base of the Congress, like the poor, the weaker sections, making inroads into the Dalit vote bank, the main problem for the Congress leadership is how they will bring back this vote bank and how they can once again remain relevant of being a party of the poor and the marginalised.
With the Congress losing state government after state government, party funds are drying up, making it difficult for AICC treasurer Motilal Vora to make ends meet. While Congress candidates were given upto Rs 20 lakhs in UP, the BJP had a huge budget of over Rs 1 crore per candidate. Corporates have been warned to stay away from the Congress. The media bosses have been told to only favour the ruling party.
In the midst of such manoeuvring and manipulation, the Congress is looking helpless and unable to formulate a winning strategy. Senior leaders are keeping their own counsel since Rahul Gandhi appears to have little or no use for them.
His navratnas are men with no experience at the grassroots level or with no political experience or foresight. Sonia Gandhi was seen as a leader who had empathy for the poor and was seen as a staunch secularist who took on the BJP’s rabid communal agenda. This helped the party to consolidate its propoor moorings and bring the minorities back into its fold despite the distrust created by the demolition of the Babri Masjid.
The lack of regional leaders who can sway state sentiments and bring back the vote banks have also hit the Congress hard. Decades of trying to finish off regional leaders is now showing in the Congress since the central leadership is also looking increasingly weak and cannot compensate for the lack of regional leaders in the states. Punjab became a winning proposition because Captain Amarinder Singh forced the Gandhis to accept “Like-Minded Parties must unite to defeat BJP” and declare his leadership in the state. If that had not happened, even Punjab would have gone the way of the other states.
Senior leaders frankly admit that 2019 cannot be a winnable goal if the situation continues like this. But the question being asked is whether a Congress party which is connected to the Gandhis with an umbilical cord can jettison the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and try a new experiment of either collective leadership or bring in a new non- Gandhi leadership.
With a large number of state assemblies up for elections in the next two years,
The Congress needs to get out of its jet lag and formulate a winning proposition, otherwise the revival of a 100-plus-year-old party looks more than difficult.
“Like-Minded Parties must unite to defeat BJP”
What’s the biggest lesson that the Congress has learnt from BJP’s mammoth win?
Congress needs to review its policy in order to match with the prevailing conditions and demands. Apart from that, strengthening the organizational structure and reclaiming the belief of people should be on the priority list.
Is the result an indication that caste-based identity politics is a passé?
BJP dwelled in the politics of non-Yadav OBCs. People from this background were poached from every party in the state. Isn’t that caste-based politics? And what is religious polarization? Isn’t it a different hue of same identity politics that you are talking about?
But that ways BSP Supremo Mayawati indulged the most in identity based politics…
I admit that targeting a particular community for votes is deplorable. People from every caste and religions participate in politics and any statement for or against a particular community are against the spirit of this process. Election Commission should have taken cognizance of the matter.
Alliances are being made without taking organization in confidence. In the retrospect, how do you see the SP-Congress alliance?
Of course organization should be taken in to confidence first. As far as alliance in UP is concerned, you cannot blame it for the loss. The process leading to the alliance was however not without mistakes. The alliance should have started campaigning long before it actually did. Seat allocation also happened rather late. All these dragged the alliance down. We could have performed better.
The only way to stop BJP at this point is by bringing all the like-minded parties together…
At least that is what the situation demands. We need to cobble up a broad alliance to stop BJP in states and at the Centre. A look at the vote percentage in Uttar Pradesh is sufficient to convince us. This juggernaut could have been stopped in UP.
Organizational elections in Congress are being delayed to spare Rahul Gandhi embarrassment as there’s fear that cadres will hold him responsible for the lackluster performances. This has made the Party rather weak…
There is no doubt that the organization is weak and needs reorganization. But we cannot link it with the perceived dissatisfaction against Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. The polls are being postponed because of the membership drive. As far as pondering on the performance is concerned, we do it quite regularly. We after all won the election in Goa, Punjab and Manipur.
Pramod Kumar
