American President Donald Trump can be accused of several things, but he cannot be accused of not playing to his gallery. It is just that his gallery is not very bright.
When he promised additional tariffs on a range of imports during his electoral campaign, no one believed he will walk his talk. But he did. The initial rounds of sanctions and tariffs against Chinese companies saw immediate retaliation. However, these retaliations were targeted, and will start to show effects in the months to come. The tariff against the import of raw steel from Canada, Argentina and some European countries ignited an already simmering cinder.
The transatlantic alliance was already under stress since Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Deal, it saw its biggest test when the US withdrew from the Iranian Nuclear Deal or JCPOA. It was extremely humiliating for America’s European allies who did all the heavy lifting. Ever-willy Iranian diplomats realised that they need not be worried about this unilateral withdrawal. They saw the breach, and put their legs firmly in it. This prompted both France and Germany to actively work for saving the deal. Sources believe that the dal shall survive with some hiccups here and there.
However, when the news about the additional tariff on steel broke just a week before G7 Meet, the affront was way too personal. Allies like Germany and Canada reacted strongly. What was more stinging was the fact that Trump Administration brought these measures under the pretext of “National Security Threat,” a stick that was hitherto used to beat Muslim countries and the likes of Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea.Naturally, Paris, Berlin and Ottawa simmered.
The situation did not improve during the meeting either where the United States, for the first time, pulled out of the previously agreed summit communique. And it was done so following a barrage of tweets against Canadian premiere Justin Trudeau that was extremely insulting.
“At the G6+ 1 in Charlevoix, Trump predictably could not but steal the show. It’s a joy to watch how his “I don’t give a damn” attitude is driving the Eurotrash crazy. After the official photo shoot, he grabbed the arm of the new Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and said, in ecstasy, ‘You’ve had a great electoral victory.’The Eurotrash was not pleased – and forced Conte to abide by the official EU, as in Merkel, policy; no G7 re-admission to Russia as long as Moscow does not respect the Minsk agreements. In fact, it is demented Ukraine that is not respecting the Minsk agreements. Trump and Conte are in fact aligned with revoking sanctions on Russia. Today they will all be debating Trump’s trade war on the EU – but he does not give a damn and should leave the summit before the end, already with Kim on his mind,” said Pepe Escobar, noted analyst at The Asian Times.
It will take several weeks before European countries and Canada will try to come up with a consolidated push back. And for that pushback, they will require, as irony will have it, China.
While G7 Meet was floundering, another important meeting was creating a global framework or a pushback. China, Russia and several South and Central Asian countries met in China under the umbrella of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Unsurprisingly, the SCO in its joint communique chastised the policies Trump Administration without mentioning the US by the name. The communique stressed on freedom of trade. SCO also saw some resetting at the bilateral level as India gave an indication that it will try and disassociate its foreign policy from America’s plans for the region, which sees India as a lynchpin to its fight against China. India, having burnt its hands at the Doklam Standoff, has quietly put the issue on the backburners, as it aspires to start afresh with China. This has given more teeth and bites to SCO.
SCO has also seen greater interoperability developing between China and Russia, who are finding common grounds in their opposition to US’ foreign policy goals in the region. Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Deal has only expedited this process. Putin and Xi Jinping appear to share a great personal rapport, and this has helped both the countries overcome their historical mistrust. A comprehensive strategic partnership looks possible in the very near future.
Now China is lining up several Asian and European countries in its trade war against the United States. G7 debacle could not have come at a more opportune moment. Western European countries, which were wary of allying with China even momentarily to pushback against the US, will now have more initiative and appetite to do so.
“SCO’s detractors in Indian media and self-styled analysts who faithfully toe the American line should take note… A star in regionalism and multilateralism rising in Eurasia,” said noted analyst and ex-diplomat, M Bhadrakumar.
While Donald Trump does not give two hoots about international opinion, he will have to reconsider several things before the mid-term polls later this year. China’s counter-measures will start biting pork and sorghum farmers in the US, who overwhelmingly fall in the Republican-controlled states. Even in the case of steel tariff, the pushback will be severe. While a few iron and steel companies will benefit from the additional tariff on the imported steel, there are several other industries that use steel as a raw material that will be affected severely. Republicans are anyway expected to perform rather not too well in the polls later in November. If the above-mentioned factors also started to weigh in, it will be a rout.
