In the first week of March, 2010, the UPA regime looked unassailable and it looked as if women politicians were on the ascendant. Mamata Bannerjee was Union Railway Minister and Kanimozhi was yet to be sent to Tihar jail for the 2 G scam. Why, even Nira Radia was yet to become a household name. Gandhi family loyalist Pratibha Patil was the President of India and Meira Kumar was the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. Sushma Swaraj had already replaced hermentor L.K Advani as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. Against this backdrop, the government made an attempt to get the Women’s Reservation Bill passed in the Parliament. The glass ceiling couldn’t be breached. Despite calibrated media reports on how UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi was ‘unhappy’ and determined to pass this ‘historic’ legislation, the Bill was passed by the Rajya Sabha and remains in limbo since then. Those few days in March, 2010, clearly revealed the limits of gender empowerment in a patriarchal and largely feudal country like India. Pundits lamented on how women would continue to win ‘token’ positions and posts while it was men who would continue to decide who actually ruled India.
More than three years down the road as India starts gearing up for the 2014 Lok Sabha election, political reality seems to have triumphed over gender bias. Perhaps for the first time in the history of post-Independence India, it is actually a group of women who will hold the key to who becomes the next Prime Minister of India. Of course, in the past, Indira Gandhi had successfully demolished male bastions and emerged as the only woman – or man – who really mattered in India. This time around, it is not a single woman but a bunch of them who are poised to call the shots. The outcome of the Modi versus Rahul or the Pappu versus Feku showdown really depends on how these women politicians perform and behave in the next one year.
Lets look at the ‘regional’ leaders first: Mayawati, Mamata Bannerjee and Jayalalitha. Their hand picked candidates will be serious contenders in 162 Lok Sabha seats together in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. If you go by the optimistic electoral mathematics projected by the supporters of the three ‘regional’ queens, there is a strong possibility of the three together controlling the unquestioned loyalty of about 100 Lok Sabha members after the 2014 elections. That could happen if the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati, the Trinamool Congress of Mamata and the AIADMK of Jayalalitha win upwards of 30 seats each in the Lok Sabha elections. Improbable, but definitely possible. Even scenarios that paint a relatively poor electoral performance by the three give them a combined tally of a minimum 70 Lok Sabha seats. Do remember, the three ladies are not beholden to either the BJP or the Congress. And what decisions they will take will without doubt decide who rules India after 2014. If we add some more women politicians not featured in this package to this combustible mix, the decisively direct influence of women leaders on Lok Sabha elections and seat tallies becomes even more apparent. Vasundhara Raje Scindia will have an impact on 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, Sheila Dixit on seven seats in Delhi. Incidentally, all the five women have been or are chief ministers. All five are genuine mass leaders with grassroots support and the indisputable ability to sway voters. And of course, whatever the reasons, all five happen to be single-like Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.
There is more. Assuming the Congress manages to keep Y.S.R Jaganmohan Reddy behind bars, his wife Bharthi and sister Sharmila will play a decisive role in deciding the electoral outcome in 25 ‘non-Telengana’ seats of Andhra Pradesh. So add up the numbers and you get an unprecedented situation where women politicians with a mass base and grass roots support will play a key role in deciding who wins about 220 Lok Sabha seats. Less high profile names like Agatha Sangma and Mehbooba Mufti Sayeed will add some more numbers to this impressive tally. According to political analysts though, it would be premature to mistake this for a gender revolution. These leaders are symbolic of the rise and rise of regional politics and regional parties in the country and it is just a coincidence that so many regional,leaders happen to be women.
But towering over all these regional leaders is the Congress President Sonia Gandhi. The media is full of hype and hoopla over the impending showdown between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. But it is evident that the real fight will be between Sonia and Modi. Even her worst critics will admit that it is Sonia Gandhi who saved the Congress party from disintegration in the aftermath of successive electoral defeats in the 1990s. Even today, without the Gandhi family glue, there is every chance of the Congress falling apart. There is no doubt that Sonia is the only pan Indian national leader(Modi’s electoral pull across India is yet to be tested) and there is no doubt that Sonia is facing the fight of her political life. Battered by scams, inflation and a weak economy, the UPA is hopelessly dependent on Sonia to construct a “miracle” third successive term. While Sonia remains the unchallenged queen of her party, Sushma Swaraj, who has personally fought elections against her, has been seemingly relegated to a secondary role in the shadow of Modi. But make no mistake: if the Modi magic fails to take the BJP beyond 180 seats, Sushma Swaraj could well become a serious candidate to be the Prime Mimister.
