How far will the 2014 General Elections break from the past?
Political astrology is a dicey business. Also, so far as elections are concerned a somewhat clear and predictable scenario emerges only closer to the actual dates of polling. The forthcoming General Elections may not represent a major departure from the past in as much as the predominant role of caste, community, money, mafia and crime would continue. To win elections, parties and candidates would still depend on vote banks because under the present system with any solid vote bank of 15-20 per cent, victory is 90 per cent guaranteed. The overwhelming majority of our representatives in Lok Sabha and state assemblies will lack representational legitimacy because they may continue to be elected with majority votes cast against them. The forthcoming elections may represent some departure from the past because of almost total governance deficit, rising prices, horrendous level and number of corruption scandals and unprecedented disconnect between the people and politicians. If a wave develops around youth power and its perception of the type of leadership required to tackle the critical situation faced by the nation on various fronts, election results may be substantially affected. It is pertinent to remember that the overwhelming majority of the electorate is young.
It will be the first time that voters will exercise None of the Above (NOTA).
NOTA, despite Supreme Court approval, is extremely unlikely to make any material difference. It may not compel political parties to set up ‘good and clean’ but not ‘winnable’ candidates. Elections are held ‘to elect’ and not ‘not to elect’ anyone. If right to reject which is the logical conclusion of NOTA is actually brought into operation, in the present popular mood of sab chor hain’ (all are thieves) it is conceivable that a powerful countrywide movement may result in rejecting all the candidates. The result would be anarchy and chaos, making democracy non-operative. The much-bandied NOTA is therefore, far removed from ground realities and might prove a non-starter.
UPA-2 witnessed mega scams, arrest of union ministers and their disqualification. Will it pave the way for cleansing politics?
Neither the arrests of some for scams nor the non-action or withdrawal of cases against the powerful are likely to cleanse Indian politics or elections. More systemic reforms and political will to sacrifice and serve would be needed.
But the ultimate question is this: those who have come to power through the present corrupt system and are its beneficiaries, why should they change it?
Recent communal riots Muzzafarnagar and inaction by authorities is a pointer toward polarising the communities ahead of elections. The so-called secularism and communalism are all used as political weapons for building vote banks and seeking votes.
Can anybody really believe that parties built on caste bases or the support of some sections of the minorities are really secular?
It seems that in Muzaffarnagar, leaders of several parties were involved in inciting communal and caste passions. While leaders of a party dubbed as non-secular were caught on camera and have been arrested, all the leaders belonging to a particular community irrespective of their belonging to the different so-called secular parties were also caught delivering most communal and provocative speeches. It is still not clear which party or parties hoped to benefit. No principles were involved, only calculations of electoral benefits. It is possible that some parties’ calculations may go wrong or misfire but whether we are in for more riots would depend on local conditions and benefit-loss calculations by different parties on a constituency to constituency basis. It is possible that in constituency ‘A’ party ‘X’ may find a communal riot coming to its rescue while in constituency ‘B’ it may be entirely another party that may hope to benefit by human slaughter.
Do you expect higher spending by candidates and political parties?
The answer is yes. Prices and costs have gone up. Elections can be no exception. Costs of running political parties, carrying on routine party activities and election campaigns have gone up. Accordingly, even the costs of tickets for some are bound to go up. If after the last election, someone in a private conversation could lament that he had to shell out Rs five crores for getting a party ticket and another Rs seven crores for fighting the election and buying support and votes, such figures are bound to go up. Black money earned from scams naturally can come handy. After all, elections are by and large fought on black money coming from criminal activities or world of crime.
How far do you think will economic factors like inflation and unemployment affect the outcome of elections?
Factors of failed economy, ever rising prices, inflation and particularly the popular perception of politicians and bureaucrats indulging in open and shameless loot of public funds and natural resources are bound to influence the voter who is more aware today.
Do you think anti-incumbency will affect prospects of UPA II and benefit the NDA? There is a lot of speculation on the subject from analysts and politicians themselves.
Anti-incumbency in the background of dismal performance and misdeeds is bound to influence voters and election results, but to what extent will it help the main opposition party, is very difficult to say today. Question is whether they can put their own house in order and adhere to some principles and a vision for the future. They can benefit more from developing an image of more positives in their favour.
Will the welfare schemes help the Congress led UPA?
People do not seem to be prepared anymore to be taken for granted or fooled by election sops of food security. They openly talk of knowing very well that all these are only being offered as bribes for buying their votes. Can those in power really pat themselves for publicly admitting that in the 67th year of Independence, 67 per cent of India’s population have been reduced to a position of having in their hands begging bowls seeking basic food grains at Rs 1, 2 or 3 a kilo from the so very benevolent mai-baap government?
What about the charisma exuded by Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi? Both are after all star candidates from their respective parties?
If a choice between the two is forced on the people, the preference is too obvious. Youth and charisma can go together. But, the whole thing will actually depend on which 543 are elected to the Lok Sabha. The Prime Minister at the head of the Council of Ministers has to command the confidence of the House.
