Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is known to always get his timing right. After all, how many politicians in India can sup with the BJP and also keep its Muslim votes intact? Who can have BJP as its staunchest ally, yet decide to publicly snub saffron strongman Narendra Modi and fellow chief minister, when a JD(U) dinner organised in favour of BJP allies in town for their Parivartan rally in 2010 was canceled at the last minute, keeping the sentiments of the state’s 16.5 Muslim voters in mind?
As the focus on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as India’s next PM-in-waiting gets shriller and as the pendulum swings between various powerful regional claimants to occupy the top position in the South Block post-2014, Nitish Kumar is girdling up his loins. He wants a showdown with his principle ally and wants it fast.
According to a JD(U) insider, “Nitish’s mind is made up. No sooner does Modi’s name be announced as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, if it does, he will rock the NDA by walking out.” He should know.
In an interview about a year ago, the Bihar chief minister made it clear that the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate for 2014 would have to have a ‘secular’ image. This was followed by like minded statements issued by important JD(U) leaders, including Sharad Yadav, inviting retorts from the RSS top brass who said the prerogative of choosing a leader for the elections lay with the BJP and not its allies.
Not much has been heard of it since Nitish is a man who chooses his words carefully – one of the reasons for his political survival and longevity. But that has not kept his proxies from indulging in Chinese whispers. The gossip doing the rounds currently in Patna is a Hindi newspaper interview of Nitish Kumar in which he has allegedly suggested that as in the case of Atal Behari Vajpayee, the BJP declared the name of its prime ministerial candidate well in advance.
The state’s public relations department has denied the existence of any such interview but has chosen not to contradict the story or demand an apology from the newspaper! Why pray?
Party insiders say that with Nitish consolidating his gains considerably since being voted into office for the first time in in 2005, his calculation now is that the JD(U) can go it alone. With several development initiatives under his belt, Nitish believes he is in a position to pull it off on his own.
Under his two tenures – November 2005 to November 2010 and from November 2010 to the present – Bihar has developed an electronic version of the Right to Information (RTI) called the Jankari scheme. In addition, his government has launched the e-shakti NREGS progamme which helps rural people can get employment information on telephone. He is credited with improving infrastructure and reducing crime, widely felt to be serious problems in the state. His tenures have seen a record number of criminal prosecutions through fast track courts. Nitish’s administration has initiated a mandatory weekly meeting with all district magistrates to monitor development at the grass root level. His government has generated employment in police services and teaching and Bihar registered record construction work, surpassing even the national average. The JD(U) government has also initiated a programme to award bicycles to girls who stay on in schools – that has seen a fall in school drop out rates. There have been periodic health schemes and improved banking facilities for farmers. Incredibly, Bihar has witnessed steep hike in GDP growth, the second highest in the country.
Which is why the Bihar chief minister’s political lieutenants are in constant touch with independent MLAs and BJP dissidents. Interestingly for Nitish, a strong faction of the BJP led by Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi is on his side.
Old BJP war horse Sanjay Jha, a former party MLC, is an example of a politician who left the saffron fold to join the JD(U) – with the consent of boss Nitish Kumar. Apart from Sushil Modi, newly-elected BJP state president Mangal Pandeya is also close to Nitish.
Just how close can be judged from Sushil Modi’s endorsement of his chief minister a few months ago as a “liberal PM candidate” – this keeping in view Nitish Kumar’s frank but unstated position that it is either he or the Gujarat strongman in a pre-eminent position in the NDA. During the controversial dinner party fiasco in 2010, Nitish had said, “We have an alliance with the BJP, not the Gujarat BJP.” The BJP as the junior partner in Bihar had to swallow the humiliation, despite making some noises.
Says a senior BJP leader, “Narendra Modi has displayed guts and popularity. The BJP will make a historical error by not projecting him as prime ministerial candidate. The JD(U) is a regional party and has no existence except Bihar.”
That said, despite Nitish’s hard line on Hindutva and Narendra Modi, the Gujarat strongman has declined to retaliate. During the annual Kosi floods in 2010, Nitish had returned the Rs five-crore relief cheque issued by the Gujarat government and the coalition was barely salvaged only after he extracted an express – though unpublicised – guarantee from the BJP leadership that Modi would have no further role in NDA affairs.
Says JD (U)’s national spokesman Shivanand Tiwari: “Our stand is very clear. We have a secular vision and a competent candidate for PM.” This has sharpened the conflict between the two allies as 2014 nears. Bihar’s health minister and BJP leader Ashwani Kumar Choubeya told TSI: “Ours is a national party. Others are just allies. They have no right to declare or reject the name endorsed by our party leader. It has already been declared that Narendra Modi is an able candidate for the top job and can lead the nation.”
The BJP’s calculation, nevertheless, has also kept Nitish’s last minute U-turn in mind. According to party insiders, in the eventuality of the two allies going their separate ways, the BJP is all set to contest 40 Lok Sabha seats independently in Bihar and cash in on the Narendra Modi factor.
Reckons one political insider, “The BJP will not just recover its 12 Lok Sabha seats which it holds at the moment, but will make gains. In the 2009 General Elections, 15 seats were given to the BJP in the alliance and the saffron party lost three. Both Modi and Nitish, at the end of the day, are progressive politicians who favour a development alternative and both have not claimed prime ministership.” Recent efforts are afoot to paper over this bad blood between the two old allies with the JD(U) leader being handed out repeated assurances that no decision on a prime ministerial nominee has yet been taken.
Rhetoric apart, politicians can hardly avoid making contingency plans. Political arithmetic hover around mathematical calculations. “In case of a split, the so-called forward and cadre vote of BJP cannot be transferred to JD-U, while 14 per cent Yadavs have Lallo Yadav as their mascot,” says one leader. And in the ever shifting political quicksands of Bihar, any coalition can spring up at the last moment. There are indications that in the worst case, JD (U) is also prepared to go with the Congress to ‘protect’ secularism and the feeling is mutual. The Congress has stated publicly that it can ally with the JD (U) if ‘communal’ elements are to be kept at bay. It could be a situation that suits both. One thing is for sure though: rarely since the days of the JP agitation of the 1970s has the Gujarat agenda affected Bihar as strongly as it is doing now.
