It’s the last annual budget that the present Congress-led UPA government is set to table in the parliament before the nation goes for general elections next year. irrespective of whether the FM makes hard choices or not, ICMR attempts to find out what are the expectations from this budget of the middle aged indian living in a metro (45-60 years); clearly, the results should not be seen as recommendations but as simple responses
The Finance Minister will push for reforms…
A huge 98% of India (at least from our set of respondents) believes that the FM will push for reforms in this upcoming budget. Although there is an insignificant minority that believes there will be no reforms, there’s also a growing perception that the FM might not wish to rock the boat during these turbulent times.
Will agriculture receive a fair share of the budget?
Over the years, the share of agriculture in India’s total output has continuously reduced (from 21% at the start of the century to 14% last year). Ergo, the finance minister may attempt to provide impetus to the industry in this budge; his recent comments that ”agriculture and allied sectors are critical for inclusive growth” could be a pointer to that. Irrespective of that. 65% of India thinks so too.
Will the current account deficit remain critical for the budget?
A widening current account deficit (the Jul-Sep 2012 deficit of 5.3% broke past records) has become a major issue that needs to be addressed immediately. Not that our respondents have a clear idea of what exactly is a current account deficit (well, do you?), but a majority of 68% feel that the deficit issue will be critical for our budget.
Other key sectors for the Union Budget FY2014
Apart from agriculture sector, retail and infrastructure could be two other sectors that may feature prominently in the upcoming budget. While the government may look forward to give a concrete shape to the retail FDI scenario, infrastructure sector will receive a push to remove existing bottlenecks.
Do you expect any material change in the tax rates?
]Despite the Finance Minister announcing little change in tax rates this year during his ongoing road shows, 45% of respondents believe that he may eventually make some changes, most likely in case of service tax rates and its applicability to various sectors.
Do you expect PSU disinvestment to go up?
While the government’s target to raise Rs. 30,000 crore through disinvestment now seems a distant dream, the Finance Minister may look forward to a higher target in the next fiscal in order to bridge the widening deficits. Moreover, the upsurge seen in the market in the last quarter has provided a golden opportunity for the finance minister to hit the market with open offers.
What is the most desired expectation from the budget?
The government has assured industry leaders and global investors that it is working on economic reforms and making “renewed efforts” to bring consensus among stakeholders to push various reform measures. The respondents also feel that government would focus more on economic reforms (48%) this year followed by deficit control(25%).
You expect the upcoming Union Budget 2013-14 to be…
Despite elections taking place next year, it was interesting to notice that only a few (12%) expect the upcoming budget to be populist. While that may well be the case, the caveat is that not many understand what exactly would the term ‘market friendly’ encompass, versus the term ‘industry friendly’. We’ll leave that to you…
